There is now little dispute that the planet is on fire.

The IPPC reports and the very latest information support evidence of rising temperature trends, more deadly weather events and the loss of biodiversity. As Michael Roberts put it in his piece on COP29 

“The latest data indicate that the planet-heating emissions from coal, oil and gas will rise by 0.8% in 2024. In stark contrast, emissions have to fall by 43% by 2030 for the world to have any chance of keeping to the 1.5C temperature rise target set by the COP Paris agreement. That target is dead and the planet is heading fast towards 2.0C rise (and above) compared to pre-industrial times.”

Many others could be quoted making the same point.

In Cymru we are certainly not immune and as the recent very informative Senedd Research briefing on COP 29 testifies that we have ‘experienced an average increase in land temperatures of 0.9% and a 2% increase in rainfall between the 1970s and 2010s and an an average annual sea level rise of around 1.4mm over the past century’. Such changes threaten ‘human life, built infrastructure, wildlife, and agriculture’, and will impact on the health and wellbeing of the whole population of Cymru. 

The emergence of capitalist production and its spread to global domination has been based on the intensive use of fossil fuels emitting greenhouse gasses in particular carbon dioxide and methane. The latter are now more than 2.6 times higher than in pre-industrial times, the highest they’ve been in at least 800,000 years.

As the latest IPPC report states:

“Back in 1990, the first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that human-caused climate change would soon become apparent but could not yet confirm that it was already happening. Now, some 30 years later, the evidence is overwhelming that human activities have changed the climate. 

Hundreds of scientists from all over the world come together to produce IPCC reports. They base their conclusions on several kinds of scientific evidence, including: 

• Measurements or observations, sometimes spanning more than a century back in time; 

•Paleo (very old) climate evidence from thousands or millions of years ago (for example: tree rings, rock or ice cores); 

•Computer models that look at past, current and future changes (see box What are climate models? on page 9); 

•Understanding of how the climate works (physical, chemical and biological processes).” 

How does this happen?

As Michael Roberts argues “Market solutions won’t work because for capitalist companies it is just not profitable to invest in climate change mitigation.” This is not a short run situation. As Marx and Engels argued, the constant search for the maximisation of the most profitable return on investment, is at the systemic driving heart of capitalism and of globalised fossil fuel based industrial use and extraction. It is driven by competition between capitals to secure a greater mass of profit to accumulate more and preserve existing capital values. We spell this out in another discussions paper.  In this competitive profit driven situation all other considerations and concerns are thrown to the wind, literally, in the case of greenhouse emissions. 

Challenging this as Michael Roberts again argues would require a 

“A global plan could steer investments into things society needs, like renewable energy, organic farming, public transportation, public water systems, ecological remediation, public health, quality schools and other currently unmet needs. And it could equalize development the world over by shifting resources out of useless and harmful production in the North and into developing the South, building basic infrastructure, sanitation systems, public schools, health care. At the same time, a global plan could aim to provide equivalent jobs for workers displaced by the retrenchment or closure of unnecessary or harmful industries.

The task.

From the Guardian:

“According to the 2024 edition of the Emissions Gap Report, released in the lead up to COP29, countries must cut emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet current climate plans would see an increase of 2.6°C to 3.1°C this century, a rise that would be disastrous for the planet.”    

So for us the target has to be at least a 42% cut in emissions by 2030. This of course is ‘net emissions’ meaning the balance between cutting the source of emissions and the effect of removing them from the atmosphere.

At the moment the international goal toward cutting emissions was agreed at the 2015 COP 21 meeting known as the Paris Agreement where the aim of keeping the increase of global average temperatures above pre industrial levels well below 2% with an aspiration to 1.5%was agreed.  Separately from the COP meetings the UK is a member of the Climate Group that has agreed the international goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050. 

This target was agreed by the UK government in 2015 and was incorporated into the Wales Environment Act in 2016. It was more recently updated to be defined as a 100% decrease over the base year of 1990. 

Evidence reported leading up to this year’s COP 29 indicates that this target is unlikely to achieve the 42% reduction required by 2030, due to the increased pace of global warming and the foot dragging of the states which have the highest emissions. All of which was borne out by the failure of the COP 29 meeting and will be enhanced by the Trump election.

The UK

The Labour government shows little sign of taking all the steps necessary to even achieve the target of 100% net zero by 2050. On the contrary, a huge policy shift has been taken toward on priority of carbon capture with the projected spend of £22 billion, the least researched and possibly most ineffective method of reducing emissions, doing little to reduce emissions from the use of fossil fuel. And taking little account of the extensive advice from the UK Government’s own Climate Change Committee that has produced independent reports since being established in 2008.

Cymru

The background to our situation in Wales has been well documented by the Senedd research publications. These are very accessible and well worth a read. 

As mentioned above, the net zero target of 100% reduction over 1990 by 2050 was incorporated into the Climate Change section of the Wales Environment Act of 2016. This Act also introduced the idea of five year Carbon Budgets to show progress toward this target. The first was for the period 2016-20 which showed a 27.8% emission reduction, higher than the 23% target for the period, largely due to the closure of Aberthaw coal fired generating station. Targets for future years are included in the Senedd research publication linked above. 

In addition to these Carbon Budgets, the UK Climate Change Committee produces detailed reports of progress toward emission reduction across the UK and specific reports for the devolved areas. These are very detailed and actually include a good range of proposals that are worth considering. The latest report for Cymru is here and the Welsh Government response is here.  The Climate Change Committee report states that “… Wales is not yet on track to meet its targets for the second half of this decade and beyond.” and that “…Wales is not using its policy powers to full effect”.

This a useful diagram of the sources of emissions in Wales, changes over time, and targets.

Overall the picture in Cymru seems to be a heavy reliance on large impact changes like Aberthaw and now Port Talbot to reduce emissions, and despite listing a large number of initiatives, there appears to be a lacking in political will to provide the necessary funding and political leadership to bring them to fruition and strategically joining them up. There is also a reliance on top down government initiatives instead of strategically working with people and winning people over across the country. 

What could we do as ecosocialists in Cymru?

First we need to be very determined to establish Cymru internationally as a leader in how climate change can be challenged and challenged quickly, involving and winning over people in the process. We should reject the idea that Cymru is too small to make a difference, and by our actions and example show what can be done for all internationally, and inter alia make the case for the way we need to move toward independence. 

In the workshop it was also stressed that there are related crises to climate change in terms of biodiversity, soil degradation and pollution. And in addition to these there is the need to adapt and mitigate the climate change effects that are and will take place due to the increase in temperatures to 1.5% and beyond. 

Policy & Demands:

1. Change the Cymru 2016 Environment Act to set 100% net zero by 2030 as the target not 2050. Scotland has 2045 as the target date, this is argued for by the Green Party and Plaid’s policy is 2035. The Welsh Government is signed up to the principle that we are in the circumstances of a climate change emergency, and setting 2030 as the target date would galvanise thinking and demand the political will to take action to achieve the target.
2. Central to achieving all the targets in the seven areas for action and the CCC reports, has to be the direct involvement of people through their communities and at work. Where possible links need to be made to how collectively people will benefit both financially and in terms of job security from achieving the targets. What can be done should be developed by citizen and workplace assemblies and meetings with outcomes supported financially and in other ways by all sections of the Welsh Government and councils.

3. As a left we do not wait for Welsh Government action but initiate local campaigns for the 2030 target together with ideas for direct action and implementation in communities and workplaces, as well as demanding adoption of the target by local councils together with our direct action strategies. Examples would be Community Energy Wales; Bristol Energy Cooperative; and the People’s Assembly Wales made the political case. 

4. Climate change action is restricted due to lack of collective ownership and control, the Welsh Government has to use its powers of public ownership to the full and insist on further devolution where they are not sufficient. This applies in particular to land, essential utilities including the railways and the electric grid, and the crown estates.

5. At a national and local level investment and other financial support should be raised through the collective coordination of the borrowing powers of all councils and the Welsh Government as well as pension funds where appropriate. These are unlikely to be sufficient and the Welsh Government should demand devolved control over all borrowing limits as well renegotiation of the Barnett funding formula and a proper share of English infrastructure investment. It also an opportunity to rethink the regressive council tax system as suggested by Commonweal. 

6. Any funding to reduce emissions from the UK government must come to Cymru without restrictions on use, such as investment in technical carbon capture and nuclear power.

7. The Welsh Government and councils should support all climate change campaigns like XR and Stop Oil, undertaking that the anti protest laws will not be enforced in Cymru.